MODELLING AND PREDICTION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOIL EROSION IN THE AGUATA AGRICULTURAL ZONE OF ANAMBRA STATE

Abstract

Climate change significantly influences soil erosion processes, particularly in agricultural zones where extreme weather conditions intensify environmental degradation. This study employs Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to model and predict the impact of climate change on soil erosion in the Aguata Agricultural Zone of Anambra State, Nigeria. Utilizing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Watershed Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), soil erosion susceptibility maps were developed. Key factors influencing soil erosion, including rainfall erosivity (R-factor), soil erodibility (K-factor), slope length and steepness (LS-factor), vegetation cover (C-factor), and conservation practices (P-factor), were analyzed. The study revealed a mean soil erosion rate of 0.79 tons per hectare per year, with predictions indicating an increase to 0.82 tons per hectare per year over the next decade due to intensified rainfall patterns as a result of climate change. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable soil conservation strategies and climate adaptation policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in the region.